![]() ![]() It is also basic economics: both supply and demand react to prices, though with a time lag. One key difference with 2022 is the larger safety cushion built up in the system.Ī bearish macroeconomic outlook, especially in major consuming nations, and resilient Russian production are often cited as the main reasons behind the shift. In June this year, Goldman Sachs reduced its 2023 price forecast to $86/bl. Market expectations have shifted from fears of supply scarcity in the face of a rapidly growing demand to concerns about trailing demand and too much supply. By June 2023, oil was trading at least $50/bl less than exactly a year earlier. On the contrary, for a year now since June 2022, they have been on a downward trend, despite the ongoing war in Ukraine and the multimillion-barrel cuts OPEC+ has announced since October 2022. However, oil prices did not move according to those projections. In April 2023, the IEA concluded, “our oil market balances were already set to tighten in the second half of 2023, with the potential for a substantial supply deficit to emerge.” Goldman Sachs anticipated oil prices would hit nearly $100/bl in that period. Although such gloomy forecasts did not materialize, most forecasting agencies and financial institutions continued to expect a tight market in the second half of this year. In July 2022, JP Morgan warned that Russia could cut up to 5 mb/d of production, driving global oil prices to a “stratospheric” $380/bl. Those fears persisted until at least the summer. Back then, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a loss of 3 million barrels a day (mb/d) – that is about a third of Russia’s total production and almost 3 percent of the global output – and warned that this could produce “the biggest supply crisis in decades.” When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, oil prices spiked to nearly $130 per barrel (/bl) in the following month. Absent economic upturn, no major deviation from current levels may happen in 2024.Until earlier this month, prices trended down despite large production cuts.Oil prices did not move according to the alarming projections in 2022.Oil refinery capacity in France 1998-2022 South Africa's crude oil refinery capacity by location 2017Īlberta's crude oil refinery capacity by refinery 2015 Oil refinery capacity in Germany 1970-2022Ĭapacity of oil refineries in Canada by region 2019 Western Canadian crude oil refining capacity by refinery 2018 Chevron, a multinational energy company with headquarters in California, had a crude oil refining capacity that handled 1.8 billion barrels of crude oil per day worldwide. In 2020, 2.8 billion barrels of crude oil were transported by pipelines to refineries throughout the United States. ![]() The most common mode of transportation for their domestic crude oil refining was via pipelines. ![]() The North American country has consistently maintained the largest oil refinery capacity across the globe. In 2021, oil refinery capacity in the United States amounted to approximately 17.9 million barrels per day, while the actual refinery throughput was 17.5 million barrels of oil per day. However, the refinery throughput worldwide was over 79 million barrels of oil per day. As of 2021, the total global refinery capacity for crude oil was some around 101 million barrels per day. The global refinery capacity for crude oil has been steadily increasing since 1970. Common oil refinery products include diesel fuel, heating oil, and gasoline. Oil refineries process crude oil into more useful products. The United States had the world’s largest oil refinery capacity as of 2022, at nearly 18.1 million barrels of oil per day. ![]()
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